Why the Republicans Have Already Lost the Election

This year the Grand Old Party has fallen into the same trap Democrats have fallen before in the past. In 2004, in an attempt to win against an incumbent President in a time of war, they chose a man with an impeccable war record, a national hero, a man of substance and conviction. And they had their asses handed to them.

Setting aside the maxim to which Karl Rove subscribes of attacking your opponent on his strength, ignoring the Swift Boat Veterans--the greatest contributor of which, T. Boone Pickens is now supporting Barack Obama, if not explicitly at least implicity--and placing aside the miserably candidacy, in which voting for something before voting against it seems to have made him a laughing stock, Kerry suffered from a change in the game.

Banking on the idea that Americans were weary of the war in Iraq, the Democrats chose a decorated military man, who opposed another unpopular war, after bothering to actually show up and serve. But the Republicans were able to frame the argument not as a battle in Iraq, but a war on a greater enemy, namely gay marriage, guns, and God. Essentially every argument was framed around the great battle for God.

Every issue was a moral one, no matter how unrelated. Don't like the Drain Commissioner? Well, did you know Jesus doesn't like the new tax to improve the sewer for Clinton Township? It's true. Jesus hates concrete embankments. I found it in the Bible. Just give me a minute to look it up.

Essentially the Republicans were successful in defanging a military man running against, well let's face it, someone who didn't show up. And they did it by making the war, taxes, even immigration into an battle or morals, where God was right, and those evil liberals were wrong.

And it worked.

This year, in an attempt to win the White House in a year when the brand is so damaged that for Halloween the scariest costume will be an incumbent Republican, the GOP chose a maverick, someone who went against the grain, and someone who could be considered an expert on war. You see, back in the winter months, Iraq was of utmost importance. And the Republicans thought they had a winner in John McCain.

The Democrats all were against the war. They wanted to end the conflict. So to provide a stark contrast, the Republicans chose a man who thought Iraq was the central front in the War on Terrah. They chose someone who was known for his opposition to his own party in the past. They chose John McCain.

But something funny happened on the way to the general. McCain needed to get elected, so he steered to the right. Then, after he clinched the nomination, he needed money, so he tacked along with the neocons. Then, seeing his stock plummeting, he went for a religious nut, and unknown, who could be cast in any light you wish. And it worked.

For two weeks.

But something even funnier happened in September. The economy imploded. The market dropped nearly 800 points, and the country collectively shit its pants. Suddenly the man who understood war and was a steady and safe choice in a time of terror was the loose hinge, the missing screw, the broken latch. A man who confessed he didn't understand the economy, whose own economic adviser called this a mental recession, was pulling tricks to distract from his inability to handle the crisis.

And now with just 30 days to go before the general McCain is throwing dirt. He is trying to shift the subject from his inability to understand and address this meltdown to tenuous associations of his opponent, Barack Obama. And he is opening himself up for a take down not seen since Reagan-Mondale.

McCain has been losing moderates since the first Presidential debate. After the Palin-Biden matchup, even more moderates are jumping ship. While Palin did not fall flat on her face, she sounded less Presidential than Biden, and for those not already hooked on the Kool-Aid, she lost.

And now come desperate attacks, laced with racial overtones. McCain and Palin are chancing what few independents they still have. In short, by shoring up their base, they are alienating everyone else.

And you just can't win the White House with the insanely stupid, racist, rapture crowd any more.

With just 30 days to go, Obama is up about 6 points on average. He now is within 5 Electoral College votes of winning. With states like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada trending for Obama, McCain cannot afford to lose any moderate votes--not in a year when Democrats out poll Republicans by 10 points. But by going so negative and not addressing the actual issues Americans are concerned about--jobs, the economy, the stock market--McCain is making it possible for what was considered a few months ago impossible: a 10 point win by Obama of McCain.

The next 72 hours will show if Americans are willing to suspend their own self-interests at a time of national economic crisis to believe baseless attacks by a flailing campaign or will shift even farther away from McCain, cementing Obama's lead so much that McCain cannot win.

Time will tell. It's 71:59:59 and counting.

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